Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-27 2.413924 2.571314 2.738545 2.930283 3.145078 3.379503 3.656380
2025-08-03 2.171671 2.384510 2.622552 2.911367 3.256309 3.660410 4.177925
2025-08-10 2.012523 2.254865 2.535487 2.889785 3.333251 3.881767 4.631813
2025-08-17 1.887564 2.147000 2.455413 2.857017 3.378919 4.054207 5.031659
2025-08-24 1.785892 2.056107 2.384252 2.822627 3.410764 4.202367 5.409104
2025-08-31 1.716811 1.998665 2.347763 2.825518 3.486488 4.411598 5.899118
2025-09-07 1.664052 1.957092 2.326727 2.844201 3.581574 4.654260 6.476162
2025-09-14 1.592872 1.887261 2.263572 2.799313 3.579895 4.749802 6.825760
2025-09-21 1.528292 1.822373 2.202672 2.752169 3.568891 4.826734 7.152567
2025-09-28 1.466372 1.757929 2.138658 2.695737 3.538033 4.866551 7.415852
2025-10-05 1.445254 1.746327 2.145196 2.739905 3.662808 5.173315 8.249598
2025-10-12 1.428212 1.739013 2.156623 2.791007 3.801696 5.520540 9.254109
2025-10-19 1.410105 1.729918 2.165662 2.840061 3.943655 5.897338 10.451837
2025-10-26 1.372224 1.691954 2.131695 2.821001 3.970106 6.063096 11.204568
2025-11-02 1.336582 1.655652 2.098299 2.800422 3.991510 6.221047 11.990806
2025-11-09 1.300288 1.617067 2.059806 2.769287 3.991348 6.335076 12.698144
2025-11-16 1.265825 1.579875 2.021780 2.736606 3.985429 6.435988 13.407483
2025-11-23 1.243124 1.558603 2.006344 2.739354 4.043586 6.681200 14.680097
2025-11-30 1.225713 1.544232 2.000459 2.757109 4.130630 7.003645 16.395361
2025-12-07 1.193659 1.507684 1.959660 2.714443 4.099392 7.050237 17.117718
2025-12-14 1.162640 1.471811 1.918713 2.669609 4.060754 7.074740 17.775777
2025-12-21 1.130835 1.434008 1.873681 2.615910 4.001261 7.042066 18.188017
2025-12-28 1.124024 1.432590 1.884435 2.657942 4.134244 7.506333 21.194247